Walder: Give me the Bills (-7) vs. the Jets. The Bills are a team with an offense that, statistically, has been very efficient and yet they made a change at coordinator. The Jets have been completely incapable on offense and yet are doing nothing different. The only reason Buffalo has looked bad is turnovers, and I’ll bank all day on that being an area with plenty of luck – or in the Bills case, lack thereof. Ultimately Buffalo is in a different class from the Jets and is home, so both I – and FPI – think they’ll cover the touchdown spread.
Fulghum: My favorite game of the Sunday slate is easily Cardinals (2-8) at Texans (5-4). Who would have ever thought? Well, it does have the highest total (48.5) of any Week 11 game! Kyler Murray returned in week 10 and immediately led the Cardinals to a victory. CJ Stroud has become the darling of the league – even garnering MVP consideration on such shows as Get Up! and ESPN Bet Live. Despite Stroud’s thoroughly impressive play and the Cardinals overall record, sharp money has already moved this spread in favor of Arizona from +5.5 to +4.5. I agree with it. I think we get an entertaining game with these two quarterbacks as the catalyst, but I’ll take the Cardinals +4.5 and think we’ve got a live dog if you’re interested in Arizona ML (+185).
Moody: Dolphins -13.5. While I typically steer clear of double-digit spreads, this particular matchup has me intrigued. The Raiders’ defense has been effective in containing opposing receivers this season. However, facing Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, it obvious that Las Vegas is not dealing with your average wide receiver duo. The Dolphins are an offensive powerhouse, currently leading in both total yards and points scored per game. Also, Miami’s 4-0 record against the spread at home adds another layer of confidence. With the bye week behind them, Miami will be eager to get back to work against the Raiders on Sunday.
Marks: 49ers Team Total OVER 26.5. The return of Trent Williams made things a lot easier for Brock Purdy and the 49ers offense last week against the Jaguars. Purdy and Niners are good at home, averaging over 30 PPG, and Purdy is great against the blitz – which the Bucs do at the 4th highest rate. Tampa’s defense is 28th against the pass, and 32nd on 3rd down, expect the 49ers to roll.
What’s your favorite prop bet on Sunday?
Fulghum: Sam Howell OVER 34.5 pass attempts (-118). I don’t see any reason to stop making this prop bet. Howell leads the league in attempts (397) and has 41+ pass attempts in 6 of his last 7 starts. The game environment may seem like it won’t require Howell to pass a lot as a 9-point favorite at home against the hapless Giants, but I don’t think that’s going to stop OC Eric Bieniemy from dialing up a ton of drop backs.
Schatz: The Chicago Bears allow an opponent-adjusted 58 receiving yards per game by running backs, and rank 31st in DVOA on these passes. We know the Lions like to use Jahmyr Gibbs in the passing game and he has over 30 receiving yards in each of his last three games. So even with David Montgomery back to share carries, I like Gibbs OVER 25.5 receiving yards.
Walder: Dexter Lawrence II OVER 3.5 tackles + assists (-122). My model forecasts 4.4 tackles + assists for Lawrence and a large part of that is the expected game flow in this game. The Giants are 9.5-point underdogs against the Commanders, and that means Washington – typically a very pass-heavy team – will probably be more run-heavy than usual. That plays into Lawrence’s over.
Moody: Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 84.5 receiving yards. St. Brown has averaged 8.6 targets and 102.6 receiving yards per game this season. In addition, St. Brown has exceeded 100 yards in four consecutive games. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he’s gained the third most yards against zone coverage this season, and the Bears play zone a lot on defense. St. Brown has averaged 90.5 receiving yards per game in his last two games against the Bears. At Ford Field on Sunday, he should continue to dominate.
Marks: Sam Howell OVER 245.5 Total Passing Yards -114. Howell leads the league in yards and completions, and he has over 300 passing yards three weeks in a row. The Giants love to blitz and Howell is the NFL’s 11th leading passer when you bring five or more pass rushers. Big Blue is 29th against the pass, allowing 7.7 yards per pass attempt.
Is there anything else you’re playing Sunday?
Schatz: This line may move some more before Sunday, but for now Steelers +1 is available, and I’m taking it. This is a really bad matchup for Browns rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The Steelers are No. 1 in DVOA against short passes but 20th against deep passes. That’s not something DTR can take advantage of because arm strength was one of his weaknesses coming out of UCLA. In addition, the Steelers allow 5.1 net yards per pass with a blitz compared to 7.3 net yards per pass without one. Think they’re going to bring some heat against the rookie? What are the chances he can handle it? So the Browns will use larger personnel and try to run the ball more to protect the rookie … and it so happens the Steelers are better in base personnel than nickel this season. As good as the Browns defense is, I trust Kenny Pickett to get a few points more than I trust DTR.
Walder: DeMarcus Lawrence UNDER 0.5 sacks (-114). Lawrence is having a solid season with an 18% pass rush win rate, but he doesn’t play a ton – he’s on the field rushing the passer on 52% of clear pass rushing situations, well behind, for example, Micah Parsons at 74%. That lower number of opportunities is a big reason why my model puts the under at -181, after removing half-sack pushes.
Fulghum: 49ers Team Total OVER 26.5 (-130). The 49ers emerged from the bye and reminded the rest of the league that they are likely the most formidable collection of talent in the NFL. Brock Purdy and the 49ers’ passing game are in a great spot against a Tampa Bay pass funnel defense. His offense is fully healthy again with WR Deebo Samuel and LT Trent Williams back. Even the Niner defense is live to score or create a short field with the addition of Chase Young already yielding tremendous results.
Moody: Travis Etienne Jr. OVER 67.5 rushing yards. Over the last three games, the Titans’ defense have allowed the 10th most rushing yards per game and rank 19th in run stop win rate. Etienne has averaged 17.8 rushing attempts per game this season. According to the odds, Jacksonville is favored by seven, so they should be playing with a lead. Considering how Trevor Lawrence is playing right now, the Jaguars have the best chance of winning this game by relying heavily on Etienne and the running game.